Politics

Crystal-balling the UK General Elections 2001

Never mind the hullabaloo about united "black power" at the ballot box. African Caribbean voters enter the British General Elections 2001 from a startlingly weaker base, in voter registration and political clout, than Asian voters.

The first clues to divergent ethnic voting profiles were published in a study of Ethnic Minorities and Electoral Politics following Labour's landslide victory four years ago. If the trends persist, and activists can't turn the tide, then the influence of African Caribbean voters is destined for terminal decline in the political charts and the nation's conscience.

Asians (Indians) are more numerous and have most clout in the ethnic electorate
Black African Caribbean, Asian and other non-white citizens make up a sizeable and growing proportion - one in twenty - of the British population. They are concentrated in urban areas, mainly in London and the southeast and the West Midlands.

Asian electors outnumber black electors by two to one, partly because of the larger size of the Asian population and partly because of their robust registration and voter turnout rates.

Among Asians (which includes voters of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi origins), the Indian electorate stands out as the largest minority group, making up a quarter of all ethnic minorities, as well as 1.5 per cent of the entire population.

Africans and Caribbean voters have lowest, Asian the highest, turnout rates
Both Blacks and Asians show keen interest in the electoral process, based on examination of registration rates among those eligible to vote, comparable to whites, reports the post-1997 elections study, partially funded by the Commission for Racial Equality. .

However, turnout rates for black Africans and black Caribbeans were generally lower than other ethnic groups. (This is possibly an indication of widespread political alienation - a serious area of concern for democratic politics in Britain).

In contrast, Indians turned out to vote in greater rates than all other groups, including whites. (This suggests an impressive commitment to, and faith in, the electoral process).

African Caribbeans are Labour stalwarts
Labour is the preferred party among ethnic minority voters - four out of five of them cast their votes for Labour in all general elections from 1974. The Conservative Party has found it difficult to increase its low share (around 18%) of the ethnic minority voters; and the Liberal Democrats have fared poorly, despite a long track record of championing immigration and racial equality.

In the 1997 General Election, the Labour Party's support among ethnic minorities was high among Indians, 81%, and overwhelming among black voters, 89%. By contrast the party commanded 46% of the white vote.

The Tories were most successful among Indians, capturing 15% of the Indian vote, which was half of the party's level of support among whites. Votes for the Liberal Democrats was highest among Bangladeshis, 9%.

Asian voters spread their political choices, and Conservatives gain
Noticeably, all major parties got the bulk of their ethnic minority support from Asians rather than blacks. This was partly due to the larger number of Asians in the minority population and the higher levels of registration and turnout among them.

With 83% of its minority votes cast by Asians at the 1997 election, the Conservative Party was most reliant on the Asian electorate - a fact that it was said at the time could prove to be both an obstacle and a challenge to its future strategy.

Labour's strategy of benign neglect of black and ethnic voters worked
Labour's triumph in 1997, was achieved with a minimum number of policies explicitly designed to win support from ethnic minority voters.

The more explicit campaigns to attract minority support by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were largely unsuccessful.

Ethnic bloc voting is a still-distant possibility
Some black political observers believe there is a potential for bloc voting in areas of ethnic minority concentration. But it is not clear that this is effective or indeed really works (mainly because the 1997 election was such a Labour landslide across the country as a whole).

Ethnic Minority Candidates get no-hope seats
The major political parties fielded a record number of ethnic minority candidates, 44, in 1997. Almost double the number who stood in 1992. However two-thirds were selected in no-hope seats where their performance was indistinguishable from white candidates

Labour's success rate was high, 9 out of 14. Liberal Democrats had a longer list of nominees, 19, but there was an unwillingness to get these candidates adopted in seats where they had a reasonable chance of winning.

There was a key breakthrough in 1997 however. Ethnic minority candidates became increasingly regarded as electoral assets based on their abilities and achievements.

(There was a notable victory by an ethnic minority candidate in a predominantly white seat - just 0.4 per cent of Ashok Kumar's northeast constituency were from ethnic minorities.)

Forging progress in the electoral process
If these findings are valid today, and there is no reason to believe they are not, then the future for minority voters and candidates, especially from black communities, is very problematical.

Faced with a dire prospect, black activists have prepared the ground for future onslaughts against an transigeant political establishment. Simon Wooley, national coordinator of Operation Black Vote, the campaigning organisation, has targeted he lack of openness and fairness of the methods used to select candidates.

Wooley, still smarting from a failed attempt to increase the numbers of blacks selected for the Greater London Assembly, the region's authority, is concerned over the conspicuous lack of black representation in elected offices, in party structures and public appointments at national and local levels.

Ms Milena Buyum of the National Assembly Against Racism (NAAR) urges support for a Black Manifesto 2001 to place black issues before the political leaders of major parties. High on the agenda are black unemployment, education, deaths in police custody, and countering institutional racism. "With the general election approaching...We need to lay down a set of demands that cannot be ignored," she told the Voice, black newspaper.

Activists in trade union and voter registration groups have urged action to end discrimination within parties and political agendas. Delegates at the Trade Union Congress (TUC) black workers conference this year signalled that prejudice and hostility towards ethnic minorities are still an unacceptable part of British culture. They urged political parties and trade unionists to advance debate within their ranks on the quickest way to eradicate such attitudes.

Lee Jasper, secretary of the NAAR and advisor to Ken Livingstone, mayor of London, says a "get tough" approach to political parties is what is needed "to let them know we mean business, and what they have to do if they want our vote," he told the Voice.

Rhetoric, reality and doubts
But all this rhetoric may have no base in political and social reality. British voting studies have not revealed any difference between what are "racial and ethnic" issues", and those that are "mainstream" issues common across all social groups.

Furthermore, there is no evidence that white and black populations are systematically or predictably divided in their voting opinions. For example, all social groups show a low level of support for preferential treatment for ethnic minorities. Both whites and black Caribbeans say "we should adapt and blend together".Equally, there are many whites who consider themselves as partisans of black efforts for political development and equal justice.

Crucially, therefore, there seems to be no monolithic white public opinion determined to veto progressive change in race relations.

Yet, there are nagging doubts. Are these cosy "colour blind" assumptions true? If not, and if the political process is scarred by racial injustice, then where are the levers for political clout that black activists desperately seek? What does the future hold for black British voters and their beleaguered communities? Watch this crystal ball.

The Black Manifesto is available from: The National Black Alliance c/o NAAR, Tel: 020-7247-9907